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Skip Navigation Linksjaguars.com / News / Ask Vic


Don’t rely on the percentage

Tuesday, April 22, 2008
By Vic Ketchman, jaguars.com senior editor
Print Story
Join jaguars.com senior editor Vic Ketchman as he tackles the fans' tough questions.
Andrew from Jacksonville
When the Jags (and other teams) take a first-rounder from their home state, like Reggie Nelson or Fred Taylor, is that because a local favorite is likely to sell more tickets or because the team has been able to scout him more thoroughly than players in other regions and know exactly what they're getting?
Vic: There have been cases of local favorites being selected because it was believed they’d help sell tickets. The first example that pops into my mind is Marcus Allen, who was picked by the Raiders as they were making the move from Oakland to Los Angeles. Allen, however, was selected right where he fit. He was not a reach. It just so happened the Raiders got lucky to be in the right spot in the draft order to pick a great player who just happened to have played at USC and would lead the Raiders into the LA Coliseum. Picking players because of their draw power, however, is not a good policy. If the guy can’t play, people aren’t going to buy tickets just to see him wear a uniform. It all begins and ends with a player’s ability to perform. As far as picking local players, that was a big thing in the early years of the NFL, for scouting reasons. If you look at the draft histories of the heritage teams, you’ll see they freely selected and signed players from local colleges. Chuck Bednarik was from Penn and played for the Eagles. Red Grange and Dick Butkus were from Illinois and played for the Bears. The Steelers’ early rosters were loaded with players who had Western Pa. roots. The Browns’ legendary head coach, Paul Brown, was an Ohio native who coached at Ohio State, and the Browns have drafted, by far, more players from Ohio State than from any other college or university. Those days, however, are long past. The NFL is truly a national league these days. The league’s teams scout every inch of this country for talent and where a player is from has little or no impact on how a player is evaluated and selected.
Allen from Bridgetown, Barbados
In evaluating a strong safety, you are looking for a guy who can hit, tackle and cover. Would you rather have a guy who is a little better hitter or a guy who is a little better in coverage at that spot?
Vic: The strong safety has always been a linebacker/defensive back hybrid. In the old days, you wanted him to be more of a hitter than a pass-defender. In today’s game, you want him to be more of a pass-defender than a hitter.
Mike from Atlantic Beach, FL
Thanks for answering some of the nervous questions about the whole Los Angeles thing. It’s reassuring to know Weaver seems to be committed to Jacksonville, as long as we (the fans) are committed to the NFL in Jacksonville. We are in control of our own fate.
Vic: Truer words have never been spoken.
John from Ofallon, MO
Can we expect to see Reggie Hayward at 100 percent this year?
Vic: That’s one of the burning questions of spring OTA practices. Given the Jaguars’ sensitive situation at defensive end, they need for Hayward to be at full strength in 2008. They also need him to regain some of the pass-rush ability he lost when he tore the Achilles. I don’t have an answer for you right now, but I’ll keep an eye on the situation for you this spring.
Greg from Fayetteville, AR
What is the single-funniest quote you've gotten from a head coach?
Vic: I’m torn between two, one by Chuck Noll and one by Tom Coughlin. Noll had a running back named Sid Thornton who had a penchant for being late for the start of practice, making mistakes, not paying attention in meetings, etc. Well, in the season-opener one year, Thornton had a nightmarish game in which he fumbled several times, the final time resulting in the game-losing touchdown at a time when the Steelers were trying to run out the clock on a win. After the game, Noll was asked about Thornton. Chuck looked straight ahead and in his very glib way he said: “Sidney has many problems and they are great.” The Coughlin quote was from the 1997 draft. After selecting tight end Damon Jones in the fifth round, Coughlin nervously stood in front of the media, knowing the first question would be about Jones’ involvement in a dormitory fire. “Now, we all know about the unfortunate incident involving a dormitory room and an incendiary device,” Coughlin said. I started to laugh so hard I had to duck my head under the table, which didn’t escape Coughlin’s notice.
Matt from Charlotte, NC
The Rams and Raiders were both Los Angeles franchises and both chose to leave. What led to both of those decisions and why do people think the third try is the charm?
Vic: Those teams left due to stadium issues. Los Angeles has always been reluctant to use public funds to build stadiums for its sports teams. When the Dodgers moved to Los Angles, they played in the LA Coliseum until Dodger Stadium was built, and it was built with private money, of course. The LA Coliseum has been used as a sports receptacle for teams attempting to strike it rich in the prosperous LA market. The Chargers played there. The LA Express played there. So have the Rams and the Raiders, and all the LA Coliseum has done during that time is get older and more unaccommodating. The last time I covered a game in the LA Coliseum was in 1994 and I sat in a makeshift outdoor press box in the end zone because the one on the 50-yard line had fallen into such disrepair that it was unfit for occupancy. We don’t know how good or bad the football fans in Los Angeles are because they’ve never had a stadium worthy of a franchise. Now we’re gonna find out.
Todd from Jacksonville
So moving up is a sucker's bet. What about trading down? Any potential value to be had by letting someone else throw away draft picks to jump up to our spot?
Vic: I don’t understand the concept of trading down in a weak draft. The Jaguars have a good roster. They have a lot of good players. They don’t need a lot of players to help them rebuild their roster. What they need is a player here and a player there. How would it help them to trade back for the purpose of selecting two players, neither of whom should be as good as the one they could’ve selected had they stayed where they are? What is it about this fascination for trading up and trading down?
Rusty from New Iberia, LA
You said the Jags would not move as long as there are butts in the seats. Well, what about when the Browns moved to Baltimore? Wasn't attendance pretty high for the Browns?
Vic: One of the great fallacies in pro football is that the Cleveland Browns were always sold out. That’s just not true. I’m looking at a history of the Browns’ attendance for games prior to the team leaving Cleveland after the 1995 season, and I’m seeing a lot of empty seats. How about 48,618 for a game against New England in 1993? How about 54,180 for the regular-season finale in 1994, when the Browns went 11-5 and made it to the second round of the playoffs? Cleveland is a great football town, but old Cleveland Stadium had a seating capacity of nearly 80,000 and attendances would dip dramatically in losing seasons. I can remember years when the Steelers game was the only game Browns fans would see on local TV that season. So let’s start with this: There was not a butt in every seat, and don’t believe anyone who tells you there was. Secondly, the Browns left Cleveland because of a stadium issue. That’s why the Rams left Los Angeles, the Colts left Baltimore, the Cardinals left St. Louis and the Oilers left Houston. Down through history, stadium issues have usually been the reason teams have left one city for another. The Jaguars, however, don’t have a stadium issue. As far as I know, the stadium situation here is fine, so don’t compare the Jaguars to the Browns, Rams, Colts, Cardinals, Raiders, etc. This is about butts only.
Alex from Orlando, FL
I sense you have just about had it with trade questions. Why are fans so infatuated with the whole let’s-trade carousel?
Vic: I think it’s because fans want to draft everybody. They look at all these first-round prospects and they see them playing for their team, so they start inventing ways to acquire them.
David from Montreal, Quebec
What's your honest assessment of the difficulty of this schedule, taking into account the fact that teams change from last year?
Vic: I don’t rely solely on the won-lost percentage. I need to look at the list of teams on the schedule because my opinion matters more to me than last year’s winning percentage. For example, the Jaguars get a lot of “difficulty” points for having Pittsburgh and Cleveland on the schedule, but I think both teams rode weak schedules last season and I don’t think they’re as strong as their records. Frankly, the Jaguars schedule doesn’t impress me as being particularly difficult. Where’s the powerhouse team on the schedule? Indianapolis would seem to be that team, but that’s a division foe and you’re going to play them twice a year every year. Now, when I look at the Steelers’ schedule, oh, baby, I’m not sure the winning percentage of their opponents is indicative of how difficult their schedule is. It may be the toughest schedule I have ever seen: Giants, Patriots, Colts, Jaguars, Chargers, Cowboys. Be your own judge. Don’t rely solely on the winning percentage. Look at the opponents on a team’s schedule and decide for yourself what the degree of difficulty is.
Ben from Clearwater, FL
Can the asterisk this year represent the team with the weakest schedule?
Vic: It may. You never know.
Richard from Jacksonville Beach, FL
What are your thoughts on NFL Films?
Vic: I love it. I love everything they do. They were the brainstorm of Pete Rozelle, whose vision was like no commissioner in the history of sports. From what I understand, there would seem to be a flap between NFL Films and NFL Network. In my opinion, the NFL should be very careful about their future role for “Films.” It has served the league well for a lot of years. Frankly, “Films” has an artistic quality I don’t see in NFL Network.
Tom from St. Augustine, FL
Has anyone ever gone back and looked at how tough each team's schedule was with the benefit of hindsight?
Vic: I remember doing it in 1999. The Jaguars had a killer schedule, but then it seemed like each team’s star player got hurt before the Jaguars played them. The Jets lost Vinny Testaverde in the opener and the Broncos lost Terrell Davis and that’s the way it went the whole year. All of a sudden, a strong schedule appeared to be very weak. You just never know about the twists in the road. Just look at the last three Super Bowl champions. They were against all odds.



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