This week there are fantasy studs on a bye (Favre, Adrian Peterson, and Thomas Jones), so you will want to make sure you have your lineups set and ready to go come Sunday. Now, some of you have asked what exactly does a start and sit ranking mean. I’ve explained it before, but I will go through it one more time so you completely understand what these rankings mean.
Start definition: When I say to start someone I am saying that they will play above the level that they normally would. A QB2 will play like a QB1, a normal flex RB will be worth starting, etc.
Sit definition: Guys who would normally be a lock to start will not be worth their normal ranking. QBs should throw for 225+ yards and at least one score; RBs should get 75+ yards and a score to be worth playing; WRs should get 50+ yards and a score to be worth playing. A player doesn’t have to get a TD to be worth playing, but he would have to get a lot of yards to make up the difference. WRs and RBs in a PPR (points-per-reception) league can make up ground, but a QB really needs to throw at least one TD to be worth playing.
Also, it depends on his stats versus the other players at his position. A QB can throw for 225 yards and a score, but still be in the bottom end of the top 10-15 QBs and be a “sit” player because compared to his peers, he did worse than most.
Now that we have that out of the way, let’s get to some predictions.
Start ‘em
Aaron Rodgers: Too many people are down on Rodgers and I don’t know why. Did you know his **DVOA (explained below) this year is -69%? What does that mean? Well, it means the offense is playing below average and defenses are playing above average. Anyway, take it from a stats nerd that just got WAY more in-depth than you should ever need to, play Rodgers this weekend against the Buccaneers.
Matt Hasselbeck: I hate doing this because every time I say to play him, he goes out and burns me. But, Detroit is that bad and the Seahawks should throw all over them on paper. I’m going out on a limb here, but I watched Chad Ochocinco talk to T.J. Houshmandzadeh live on UStream.tv today and Housh sounded like he was going to go to work on the Lions this weekend.
Ray Rice: I hate to do it to the Bengals because they’ve been so good to me. But, Ray Rice is the whole offense in Baltimore and I think he is going to score enough fantasy points this weekend to finish as a high RB1. The Ravens have finally turned the reigns over to him and he is coming through.
Joseph Addai: This is one that the numbers suggest a start, not my heart. I almost never… NEVER… get Addai in my fantasy leagues because I put him on the do not draft list. But, this weekend, I have to play him. Houston’s run defense is ranked 20th in the NFL and Addai should hit that 75 yards and a TD, making him a low-end RB1 in week 9.
Chad Ochocinco: C’Mon Son! The last time the Ravens faced the Bengals Ray Lewis put a hit on Ocho that left him with a black eye and a bruised ego. I’ve been listening to Ocho all this week and you can tell he has a fire in his belly to avenge that hit and put some work in on the Ravens. Don’t let me down, Chad!
Michael Crabtree: The Titans secondary is allowing a league-worst 282.4 passing YPG this season and Crabtree looks to have become the new WR1 in San Francisco. I think this is the weekend he gets his first NFL TD and fantasy owners should play him as a mid-WR2 this weekend.
John Carlson: The problem with TEs is once you get past the top 3-4, the next 5-7 are all the same, really. This is now-or-never time for Carlson as the Lions are terrible and the Seahawks should be able to spread the ball around enough to get Carlson 5+ catches and 50+ yards. For a TE, that is about all you can hope for.
New Orleans Saints defense: The Saints defense is still underrated, which blows my mind since they allow just 326 yards of total offense per game. I would love to play them this weekend against the Panthers’ struggling offense and so should you.
Sit ‘em
Matt Ryan: Remember what I said, QB1 plays as a QB2. Ryan faces the Redskins and their #2 ranked pass defense this weekend, and I will be sitting him in the leagues in which I own him. Washington gives up just 164.9 passing YPG and is tied for 4th with 6 passing TDs allowed.
Eli Manning: The Giants are at home, but teams have figured out if you jam Steve Smith at the line, he doesn’t get separation like he used to. San Diego is 6th against the pass (178.4 YPG) and Manning is due for another bad game.
Ryan Moats/Steve Slaton: Indianapolis is just 17th against the run, but since the Texans refuse to give the ball to just one back, both backs will likely cancel each other out. I am sure one will score a TD, but which one is anyone’s guess. I made this pick because while I am sure one will get solid fantasy numbers you don’t know which one, so you need to sit both until the roles become clearer.
Brian Westbrook: The Cowboys are 13th against the run, but Westbrook is coming off an injury and this is a huge rivalry game where I think the Eagles will light it up with the pass. Even if they do run, I think the emergence of LeSean McCoy means the Eagles can be cautious with Westbrook and ease him back.
Mario Manningham: Manningham started off the season hot, but has really cooled off the last few weeks. Since I think Manning isn’t a good play, I certainly wouldn’t be excited to play a WR that has logged more than 58 yards just once this season and has seen more than four receptions just once. His only truly “good” game came in week 2.
Santonio Holmes: Many people drafted Holmes in the hopes that he would become a solid WR2, and so far this season he has just one TD and is averaging just 71 YPG. I personally won’t play him any higher than a WR3 against the Broncos’ 8th-ranked passing defense.
Fred Davis: Too many people are jumping on the waiver wire to pick up Davis now that Cooley is out. I don’t think you should expect another 100+ yard game from him again. Almost any NFL player can go out and look good for one game, but now teams have watched film on him and I have a feeling he is going to go Luis Murphy/Mohamed Massaquoi on fantasy teams.
Philadelphia Eagles defense: I don’t care what the other sites are saying; I am going to sit the Eagles defense this weekend. The Cowboys are #2 in the league for total offensive yards (411.1 YPG) and the Eagles defense allows 296.9 YPG. Go somewhere in the middle and you are at about 350 total yards and I see 21+ points from the Cowboys, and that means negative points in fantasy leagues for points allowed.
Question of the week
Q: I currently lead my league, but I am looking for more production from my quarterback. I would like to trade for Peyton Manning. The guy that owns Manning is starting Reggie Wayne, Mushin Muhammad and Nate Washington at wide receiver and I know he’d like better production there. On the ground he has Chris Johnson and Reggie Bush. His only QB is Peyton Manning. His team still has a long shot at making the league playoffs (4 Teams). My thoughts are trade Flacco, Smith and Edwards. Is this too high/low a price, or do you think the trade would be worth it? Any other trade suggestions would be welcome. Thanks for the help. My Team QB - Joe Flacco QB - Carson Palmer WR - Andre Johnson WR - Greg Jennings WR - Miles Austin WR - Braylon Edwards WR - Steve Smith (NYG) RB - DeAngelo Williams RB - Ronnie Brown RB - Pierre Thomas RB - Donald Brown RB - Daren Sproles TE - Antonio Gates K - Mason Crosby D/ST - Broncos D/ST – Saints (Dan from Jacksonville)
A: I would make that deal for Peyton if you can afford to lose both Smith and Edwards. Flacco is overrated in my book. And I think you have the depth to do it. But you are going to have to sell him on ‘this makes him a more well-rounded team and gives him a shot at the playoffs.’
Nobody wants to lose Peyton Manning, so you need to tell him that Manning alone has got him on the outside looking in for the playoff race and if he wants to make it in, he will need to make a move to balance out his team. Since you have some extra depth, you are willing to trade him depth to get you a top starter.
** Defensive Adjusted Value Over Average: a DVOA rating of 0% is equivalent to league-average performance. Positive DVOA numbers represent above-average performance by the offense and below-average performance by the defense, while negative numbers represent the opposite.
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