Mocking the mocks

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We've talked until it seems we'd be about talked out.

Two days out, that's where we are at jaguars.com with the 2012 NFL Draft. We've mocked, and we will mock a final time Wednesday. We reader mocked for a month, and kicked it around on Twitter until there seems little left to kick. We've answered questions in the regular O-Zone ad nauseam and chatted live until we were pretty close to nauseated, period. We've talked draft from the Senior Bowl, the Scouting Combine, the Owners Meetings, and from right here inside Everbank Field.

We've done all of that, and we're just getting started.

We're into draft week, which means the rumors and speculation only heighten. You'll hear a lot of things the next two days. Some of it will be dead-on. Much will be way off. The trick is wading through it, and from a Jaguars perspective the thing that's striking is there's no consensus.

While many mockers agree on the first six selections, when the Jaguars select at No. 7, everything goes tantalizingly in seemingly countless directions.

So, who's right? Who's wrong? Who knows? But it does seem if you can nail the Jaguars' selection in your mock you'll go a long way to seeing how the rest of the round plays out, so our task today is taking a shot at wading through the mess.

We'll call it mocking the mockers. We'll take 10 Jaguars 2012 draft scenarios from various mockers and try to offer some insight. As the title indicates, we'll have a little fun, too. Because remember—

For those of us who follow it, that's sort of what the draft is supposed to be about.

Peter King,Sports Illustrated

Top six: Colts, Andrew Luck, QB, Stanford; Redskins, Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor; Vikings, Matt Kalil, OT, Southern California; Browns, Trent Richardson, RB, Alabama; Buccaneers, Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU; Rams, Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State.

Jaguars: Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina.

King says: "Jacksonville has a major hole at cornerback, and I hear the Jags like Gilmore a ton, which would have to be the case for them to reach for him here."

Comment:This has become a trendy mock for the Jaguars in the last few days, and because King is King and very well-read it's bound to gain momentum. It's also a selection that makes sense. Assuming Blackmon and Claiborne are off the board – and assuming the Jaguars can't trade down – Gilmore and Mississippi State defensive tackle Fletcher Cox could be two of the highest-rated players remaining. If players are graded similarly, you lean toward need and with Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox each having a year remaining on their contract, cornerback makes sense. King also has a section about who each team "should" draft. Here, he mentions Stanford guard David DeCastro, a selection that also makes sense considering Jaguars General Manager Gene Smith's fondness of low-risk selections in the first round. DeCastro doesn't play a premium draft-day position, but most scouts believe he's a perennial Pro Bowl selection if he stays healthy.

Likelihood:Fairly high. If Blackmon and Claiborne are gone, and if they can't trade, it may be down to Gilmore or Fletcher Cox.

* *

Pat Kirwan,CBS Sports

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars:Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina.

Kirwan says: "If things break the right way, Coples will be there and they need his versatility and size on the defensive line. I have talked with Coples enough to believe he is properly motivated."

Comment:Coples was a popular choice to Jacksonville early in the mock season. It's not popular anymore for a reason; because many, many scouts question Coples' effort in college.

Likelihood:Low. Very low.

* *

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars:Melvin Ingram, DE, South Carolina.

Frenette says: "Ideally, the Jaguars would like to trade down and take wide receiver Michael Floyd if available. Being stuck at No. 7, though, Ingram is the safer pick."

Comment: Ingram is a popular choice because he fills an apparent need at defensive end. The positive about Ingram is he is versatile and a legitimate Top 15 talent. The concern is he may be more of a 3-4 linebacker than a 4-3 end.

Likelihood:Iffy. He's possible, but perhaps not as possible as Gilmore or Cox.

Pete  Prisco,CBS Sports

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars:Ingram.

Prisco says:"This could change to Fletcher Cox or another defensive tackle with the eye injury suffered by Terrance Knighton."

Comment: There's no difference in this mock through seven selections than the Sporting News mock, but Prisco and Frenette so rarely agree it was fun to include it.

Greg Cosell,NFL Films

Top six: Colts, Griffin; Redskins, Luck; Vikings, Gilmore; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Janoris Jenkins, CB, North Alabama; Rams, Cox.

Jaguars: Claiborne.

Cosell says:"Claiborne played both press and off coverage at LSU, and he also played in the slot. Claiborne was a smooth, efficient mover, but he was not as physical as Gilmore, and I don't believe he provides the same slot versatility as a blitzer and run-support defender."

Comment:Cosell's mock draft was fascinating because it was based on his grades and not what he believes actually will happen. That's why Griffin was mocked to the Colts although the Colts have told Luck they're taking him No. 1. In Cosell's draft, Claiborne is the No. 3 corner behind Gilmore and Jenkins.

Likelihood:Low. If he's available at No. 7, Claiborne will be hard for the Jaguars to pass, but few expect him to be available.

Peter Schrager,FoxSports.com

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars: Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame.

Schrager says: "I'm not giving up on Blaine Gabbert after one bad year. If he can't succeed with the seventh overall pick as his top receiver, then there's a problem."

Comment: On paper, this is logical. In reality, it smells like a selection that looks good on paper because of need but doesn't quite match up with team philosophy. With Blackmon gone in this mock, logic for a need-drafting team would point you toward Floyd. The Jaguars' receiving corps struggled last year, and many analysts have Floyd pushing Blackmon as the draft's top receiver. But Floyd's off-field issues combined with a draft class that goes deep at the receiver position could be reason enough to pass on Floyd.

Likelihood: Not nearly as likely as many believe – at least not in the Top 10.

Will Brinson,CBS Sports

Top six:Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin III; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Blackmon; Buccaneers, Richardson; Rams, Claiborne.

Jaguars:Dontari Poe, DT, Memphis (No. 12 overall, trade with Seahawks).

Brinson says:"It's not like Gene Smith won't skip 'need' for 'best random player with a lower pre-draft profile' anyway."

Comment:This selection was included because it's a rare mock that includes trades. Credit Brinson for originality, if not accuracy. Poe had a great combine, but his production didn't match his athleticism. The Jaguars might trade down and they might take defensive tackle, but it probably wouldn't be Poe.

Likelihood: Low.

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars:Gilmore (No. 15 overall, trade with Eagles).

Kuharsky says:"The Jaguars could consider Gilmore at No. 7 and get him at No. 15. Corner is not the biggest need after the acquisition of Aaron Ross, but no defensive end or receiver screams to be taken at No. 7 or 15."

Comment:Kuharsky engineered a trade for the Jaguars, and by his own admission didn't get a great deal. In this mock, the Eagles sent the Nos. 15, 88 and 153 selections to the Jaguars for Nos. 7 and 176. Essentially, that means the Jaguars move down eight spots in the first round to gain a third-rounder and swap a sixth-rounder for a fifth-rounder. That may not be enough for the Jaguars to move down on draft day.

Likelihood:So-so. The trade is relatively unlikely, but if the Jaguars indeed move down to this area, Gilmore makes a lot of sense.

Rob Rang,CBS Sports

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Cox.

Jaguars: Gilmore.

Rang says:"There is considerable buzz throughout the league that should the (Jaguars) be unable to trade down, General Manager Gene Smith prefers Gilmore, even ranking him ahead of Claiborne as the top cornerback in the draft."

Comment:This is a notable mock because it has the Jaguars passing on Blackmon and selecting Gilmore. Most mocks have Blackmon to the Rams and have Gilmore going to the Jaguars in the absence of the Oklahoma State wide receiver. That would be a gutsy move and would speak volumes for the Jaguars' willingness to draft best available player over need.

Likelihood:Hard to picture passing on Blackmon if he's there.

Don Banks,SI.com

Top six: Colts, Luck; Redskins, Griffin; Vikings, Kalil; Browns, Richardson; Buccaneers, Claiborne; Rams, Blackmon.

Jaguars:Cox.

Banks says:"With starting defensive tackle Terrance Knighton slated to miss almost the entire offseason after suffering an eye injury, the Jaguars won't be able to pass on Cox, the highest-rated defensive tackle in a tackle-heavy draft."

Comment:This selection makes sense and has since before Knighton's injury. If the Jaguars are at No. 7 and Blackmon and Claiborne are gone, many analysts believe that leaves Cox as the best available player.

Likelihood:Fairly high. If Blackmon and Claiborne are gone, and if they can't trade, it may be down to Cox or Gilmore.

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