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Final Analysis: Jaguars Media Give Predictions Before Week 3 vs. Patriots

FINAL ANALYSIS

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2026 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, Mark Duffner, Austen Lane, John Shipley and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They win the line of scrimmage. Pass protection struggled last week against the Broncos, and the Patriots are another very good defense. The line must give Trevor Lawrence time and create more space for the backs. Defensively, the Jags will hold their own against the Patriots. The offensive is the key.
  • The Patriots will win if: They harass Lawrence like the Broncos did. They must find something in the passing game and protect against a very good Jags defensive front seven. Maye has been up and down early in the year. He must play better.
  • As Frangie sees it: The Jaguars are very good at home, and this is one of six games to be played in their true home stadium this season. It is important to win those. Lawrence is better than Maye and I think the Jaguars will bounce back. Even after not playing their best a week ago, they led much of the game, and the Broncos needed a fourth quarter score to win by one touchdown while aided by a loud crowd. I think the Jags will win this and get to 2-1.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: They score north of 24 points and control the running game of Patriots quarterback Drake Maye. The Jaguars' offense was finally slowed last week in Denver. I think they can get right back on track, but they need to finish drives and take advantage of their scoring chances. My big concern on defense is Maye's running ability. He can keep a lot of drives alive with his legs.
  • The Patriots will win if: They win the turnover battle and their defensive front dominates. This is a big challenge Sunday for the interior of the Jaguars' offensive line. It didn't play well in Denver, and this is another tall task. The Jaguars can't be dominated in the middle of the trenches and win. I think the Jags are the better team, so New England will need to win the turnover battle to win the game.
  • As Martineau sees it: The first rebound test of the season happens Sunday for the Jaguars. I think they are a better team than the Patriots, but they have to show it. I think there will be a sense of urgency to win this game and I think they will get it done easier than most expect. Jaguars win, 30-17.

John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They win the lines of scrimmage. This is true most weeks in the NFL, but it seems particularly true for the Jaguars Sunday. The Patriots aren't flashy and they have struggled offensively this season. But they can out-physical and outwork teams. The Jaguars must outdo New England on those fronts Sunday.
  • The Patriots will win if: They pressure the Jaguars' offense into mistakes. The Jaguars have been efficient and explosive in recent home games. The way to counter efficient, explosive offenses is to pressure the opposing quarterback into momentum-killing turnovers – and the Patriots are really good in this area.
  • As Oehser sees it: This game feels like it will be decided in the fourth quarter by the team that handles pressure – and that forces and avoids mistakes. The Patriots are good in games like that. A victory for the Jaguars would be impressive – and important.

Check out top photos from the Jaguars' mid-week practice ahead of Week 3 of the 2026 Regular Season.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They re-establish their identity as the more physical team. I expect the Jags to respond to being pushed around up front in a road loss to the Denver Broncos last Sunday in the same way they responded to the Carolina Panthers after being overpowered by New Orleans Saints in August. The Jaguars preach a playstyle that requires a level of effort and the mindset to be the more physical team. They must return to that style Sunday.
  • The Patriots will win if: They take apart the Jaguars' offensive line as they did against the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. Steelers quarterback Aaron Rogers had less time to process and play than Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence did in Denver. The Patriots' front featuring Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Dre'Mont Jones can wreck your day.
  • As Sexton sees it: Jaguars Head Coach Liam Coen has proven his ability to get his team right in a week's time. When the Jaguars lost a late lead in a loss to the Houston Texans last season, Coen got them "on the screws" against a hot Los Angeles Chargers team the next week – and they sent the Chargers back to the West Coast with a 35-6 loss. It will be another fourth-quarter game, but the Jaguars will find a way to win a fifth consecutive home game.

Mark Duffner, longtime NFL assistant coach and Jaguars analyst

  • The Jaguars will win if: They play to their standard for 60 minutes and win the line of scrimmage on offense and defense. They must be the more physical, tough team in all three phases. Offensively, they must establish run/pass balance, get the ball to playmakers and handle the pass pressure. Defensively, they must affect the quarterback with productive rush and coverage and eliminate explosive plays. Playmakers must make plays offensively and defensively.
  • The Patriots will win if: They run with their potent rushing attack and establish manageable down-and-distance situations. They also must effectively pressure Lawrence.
  • As Duffner sees it: Don't panic. The Jaguars have demonstrated maturity dealing with adversity and momentum shifts in games. They must learn from Sunday's loss and correct mistakes. They also must pay keen attention to the details, rules and responsibilities of positions.

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Throwback Teal Jersey | Throwback White Pants | Black Socks

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Austen Lane, former NFL defensive end and Jaguars analyst

  • The Jaguars will win if: They get back to their identity and help Lawrence in the pocket. The Patriots' strength defensively is their interior, so the Jaguars must get back to 12 and 13 personnel, use play action and boots to give Lawrence more time and help the offensive line get its mojo back. Defensively, it starts with stopping the run. If the Jaguars' defensive line can make New England one-dimensional, Maye could be in for a long day with a Jags defensive line hungry to prove themselves.
  • The Patriots will win if: They run and make Lawrence uncomfortable. With Brown out, the strength of New England's offense is the run game. If they can establish it, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels can sprinkle in targets to Doubs and tight end Hunter Henry. Defensively, if the Patriots' pass rush can take advantage of a Jaguars offensive line that gave up too much pressure against Denver, they could force Jacksonville into some costly mistakes.
  • As Lane sees it: Last week wasn't the performance or the identity we expected to see from the Jaguars. But it's the NFL. Those games happen. If this regime has shown us anything, it's that they tend to bounce back after questionable performances and I expect this game to be no different, especially in front of the home crowd. Give me the Jags, 24–17.

John Shipley, Jaguars correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They protect Lawrence. The Jaguars struggled to keep Lawrence clean against the Broncos, and the offensive line must be better Sunday. The Patriots may not have the same reputation for disrupting games up front as the Broncos, but they are capable of forcing the Jaguars into some mistakes. Jacksonville's offense looks completely different when the Jaguars protect Lawrence.
  • The Patriots will win if: They generate explosive pass plays. Broncos wide receiver Jaylen Waddle gave them fits, and the pressure will be on the Jaguars' secondary to make sure it does not happen again. The Patriots will be without star wide receiver A.J. Brown, but wide receiver Romeo Doubs is still an explosive playmaker for whom the Jaguars must plan.
  • As John Shipley sees it: The Jaguars have a bad taste in their mouth after a mistake-filled loss to the Broncos. I think the Jaguars will respond as you would expect under Coen, and I think that response will help them get a much-needed Week 3 win. Jaguars win, 23-16.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They get back to their high-scoring ways. The Broncos held the Jaguars to 13 points last week, but many of the Jags' issues were self-inflicted. The offensive line must do a better job pass-blocking and give Lawrence more time to throw. Brian Thomas Jr. and the other wide receivers must eliminate drops and take advantage of every opportunity, because New England has one of the best secondaries in the league.
  • The Patriots will win if: Maye stays confident in the pocket and delivers the deep ball. Jacksonville is vulnerable to allowing explosive plays and Maye has the arm talent to take advantage of that. Doubs also must step up in Brown's absence.
  • As Stevens sees it: This is a very important game for both teams, but home cooking for Jacksonville should right the ship. Jags win, 21-14.

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