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Final analysis: The experts on Jaguars-Colts


JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2022 season, Jaguars "experts" – Tony Boselli, Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Ashlyn Sullivan – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.

Tony Boselli, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars left tackle

  • The Jaguars will win if: They follow the same formula as the first matchup this year: Defensively take away the run and force Ryan to beat you – and offensively play an efficient, turnover-free game.
  • The Colts will win if: They have a balanced attack and Ryan can use play action to get the passing game going. Defensively, they must take away the quick passing game and force Lawrence to hold the ball and work down the field.
  • As Boselli sees it: This is a really important game for the Jaguars. After back-to-back poor performances, they need this one. It's going to be a low-scoring affair that will be determined by turnovers and big plays: Jaguars win, 14-13.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They get the kind of quarterback play from Lawrence they got the last time they played the Colts. I don't worry about him; I think he is going to be very good. We've seen enough of the signs. But young quarterbacks take a while to develop and the growing pains can affect the outcomes of games. The Jags must continue to play tough defense and stuff the run. The Colts want to run it, with or without Taylor.
  • The Colts will win if: They stop the run and force Lawrence to throw off schedule. And they have to do a better job protecting Ryan. The Jaguars had him running crazy the first time the two teams met.
  • As Frangie sees it: This is a really important game for both teams. The AFC South looks like a division that will be jumbled together for much of the season. Every game between division teams is so important. If the Jags take care of the ball and get the passing game going, they have a good chance for the sweep. That is the key.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end

  • The Jags will win if: They win the turnover battle. The last two games, both losses, have seen the Jaguars turn the ball over seven times with only one takeaway. In their two wins this season, they have a plus-five turnover differential with no giveaways. This game is about the ball and making plays that are there for the taking.
  • The Colts will win if: They run effectively with or without Taylor. Ryan's protection has been suspect so far this year and the true way to protect him is by running with great success. The Colts have been mixing up their offensive line starters to get better results, but they have yet to accomplish the desired outcome.
  • As Lageman sees it: This will be a tough game with both teams having had recent trouble protecting the football offensively and both teams having stingy defenses. The home team has had a significant advantage in this series and the Colts have a recent shutout to remember from the Jaguars to give them a little extra motivation. The Colts are a bit banged up, but the Jaguars will have to be ready for a tough battle regardless. Ryan and Lawrence are both coming off subpar performances. Whichever one bounces back will lead his team to victory in a critical division game.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: They score over 20 points. I don't think the Colts' offense is that much of a threat right now. They are beat up and not playing well. The Jaguars' offense can move the ball, but can they cash in in the red zone and other key spots of the game? The Jags need more than 20 points and they will sweep the Colts.
  • The Colts will win if: They control the line of scrimmage. This had been a strength for the Colts in recent seasons, but not so far this season. The Colts must take some pressure off Ryan and pressure Lawrence. The Jaguars' losses have come with disruptive trench play from the opposition.
  • As Martineau sees it: I think this will be a different game than Week 2 and a closer game, but I just think the Jaguars are better. I don't even understand how the Colts have two wins because they have played so poorly. The Jaguars need this game to avoid a three-game losing streak. I think they get it, 23-13.

John Oehser, senior writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They win turnover differential and score in the red zone. The Jaguars have moved efficiently every game in decent weather this season. What has hindered them in their losses is the inability to finish drives.
  • The Colts will win if: They protect Ryan. The Jaguars got more pressure on the quarterback in Week 2 against Ryan than they have in any of their other four games. If Ryan isn't pressured, he can take advantage of wide receivers Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce – neither of whom played in Week 2.
  • As Oehser sees it: This is another tough task for the Jaguars. The Colts have won low-scoring messy games this season and the Jaguars have lost all three of their close games. It's also tough to beat a division opponent twice. The Jaguars need an early turnover and an early lead to feel good about this one.

Brian Sexton, senior correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They can make "Matty Ice" melt. Colts quarterback Matt Ryan at 37 doesn't look anything like the quarterback who was the NFL Most Valuable Player in 2016. He has been sacked 21 times in five games and fumbled 11 times. He turned it over three times in Jacksonville in Week 2, which gave Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence both field position and extra possessions. If the Jaguars are going to sweep the Colts and win in Indianapolis for the first time since 2017, it starts with attacking the pocket with ruthless abandon.
  • The Colts will win if: They frustrate Lawrence as the Houston Texans did last week, when Lawrence admitted to forcing the ball and letting his impatience take over in the second half. The Colts have some good defenders in the back end such as cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Kenny Moore II. If Lawrence tries to force things Sunday, it's likely the string of seven turnovers in seven quarters will continue. So will the string of losses.
  • As Sexton sees it: I think the Jaguars will find a way to win this week. I'm tempted to go back to not trusting them on the road and in the division, but this is more about believing the Jaguars have a better roster. The Colts have some big-time talent such as running back Jonathan Taylor but they're missing a lot of key guys to injury. I think the Jaguars get the sweep and get back in the race after last week's disappointment.

J.P. Shadrick, senior reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence protects the ball. He was responsible for five turnovers in Philadelphia in Week 4 and two interceptions (one on a desperation pass at the end) against the Texans in Week 5; giveaways are adding up and they're costing the Jaguars opportunities to win. Hang on to the ball, and finish with points in the red zone, preferably touchdowns.
  • The Colts will win if: Ryan has time to stand back and throw the ball around with some receiving options back in the fold. This feels like a game in which the Jaguars should be able to rush the passer effectively and do it often against a banged-up Colts offensive line. Jaguars pass rushers Travon Walker, Josh Allen and others should have big games.
  • As Shadrick sees it: There is confidence since the Jaguars shut out the Colts only a few weeks ago, and we will see if they can replicate that success on the road. The defense has played at a winning level all season long, allowing only 16 points per game (T-4th NFL). The offense is going through some growing pains. If you're calling us on the postgame radio show (thanks for listening/calling) saying the quarterback should be benched, that's a bad and ridiculous take and you're wrong. Lawrence must play and grow and improve, and I still have no doubt that he will.

Ashlyn Sullivan, Jaguars team reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: The defensive line gets after it. The Colts gave up six sacks last week against the Broncos and Ryan was constantly rattled. Allen and Walker need to get after Ryan quickly to set the tone and give Jags early momentum. This game will be a defensive battle. The Jaguars are working to set the tone with their defense yet again.
  • The Colts will win if: Their secondary forces Lawrence to beat them. Gilmore has been all over the field, especially last week against the Broncos. The Colts know Lawrence will try to get wide receivers Zay Jones and Christian Kirk more targets Sunday; if the Colts can take them away, I fear Lawrence will struggle to get a consistent rhythm going. Jones and Kirk are coming off a game where they only had eleven targets combined. There will be pressure to get them the ball more, nut Lawrence cannot force it.
  • As Sullivan sees it: I worry about this game just because of how the Jaguars have been playing recently. If the offense cannot convert in the red zone like last week, they won't be beating anyone. Lawrence must play patient football as he did Week 2 in Jacksonville against the Colts. He was nearly perfect in that game. If he can do that again, the Jaguars will win. It's all on the quarterback this week.

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