JACKSONVILLE – Each Saturday during the 2020 season, Jaguars experts – Rick Ballou, Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Ashlyn Sullivan – will break down the following day's Jaguars matchup.
Up this week:
The Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
Rick Ballou, Jaguars sideline reporter
The Jaguars will win if: They run effectively. Rookie running back James Robinson is coming off two consecutive games with 20-plus carries. He should be able to have some success against this Green Bay defense, which is not great against the run. Scoring touchdowns in the red zone is a must; the Packers have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, the most in the NFL. If Jags can run, then rookie quarterback Jake Luton will have more opportunities downfield.
The Packers will win if: Quarterback Aaron Rodgers plays to his usual level. Rodgers has been unstoppable, making him an MVP candidate. Jacksonville blitzed more than usual last week against Houston and had some success; however, Rodgers will be dangerous in that situation. He has been able to do basically what he wants against every defense he has faced thus far this year. Green Bay is averaging more than 30 points a game and there is no reason to think the Packers won't be able to score 30-plus points Sunday.
As Ballou sees it: This is tough sledding for Luton in his first road start. The last time the Jaguars won at Lambeau Field was in 2004, when Luton was eight years old. Green Bay is one of a handful of NFL teams that are Super Bowl ready. As long as the Packers don't overlook the Jaguars, they should win by a couple of touchdowns.
Tony Boselli, Pride of the Jaguars left tackle
The Jaguars will win if: They win the turnover battle and Robinson has a huge day. When you are playing a team that is better than you, you must steal a few possessions to give your offense more opportunities. When the Jags have the ball, they must run it for a couple reasons. Robinson is your best player and weapon, and running runs the clock and keeps Rodgers on the sideline.
The Packers will win if: They don't help the Jags by turning the ball over. Green Bay is the better and more-talented team. It doesn't mean the Packers can just show up and win, but if they play a clean game, they should find themselves on the right side of the scoreboard.
As Boselli sees it: This is a tough matchup for the Jaguars against a really good Green Bay team. I think rookie quarterback Jake Luton and a young Jaguars team bring the fight to the Packers, but in the end just won't have enough: Packers 34, Jaguars 21.
Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars
The Jaguars will win if: They play their best game. They must start fast, meaning Luton must hit a few plays down the field such as the early bomb to wide receiver DJ Chark Jr. last week. The Jaguars can't make mistakes and must get a takeaway or two. I think defensive coordinator Todd Wash needs to draw up some unorthodox blitzes like the Jaguars ran last week. They are a big underdog, but the NFL is built in a way in which upsets happen. They must get a lead, run Robinson and try to force some errors.
The Packers will win if: They take care of business, don't make mistakes and protect Rodgers. Davante Adams may be the best receiver in football. The Packers must get him going early and keep up the pressure on a young Jaguars defense.
As Frangie sees it: This is the toughest challenge of the season for the Jaguars. Jacksonville started six rookies last week and played even more. On the road, against a veteran team, one of the best quarterbacks in the league and a team hoping for home field throughout the postseason … the young Jaguars must play their best game to be in this one.
Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end
The Jaguars will win if: They can force the Packers into turning the ball over a couple times. This is not something they typically do as they have three turnovers, the fewest in the NFL.
The Packers will win if: Rodgers plays as he has all year. He is the NFL's highest-rated quarterback. There is nothing he cannot do, and he is having one of his best years as a pro.
As Lageman sees it: This is an intriguing game from the standpoint that Luton and the Jaguars' offense must keep pace with a high-scoring Packers offense led by Rodgers, Adams and running back Aaron Jones. Robinson can try to shorten the game by having success running and the Jaguars can try to steal a possession somewhere along the way to find a way to do what many view as the impossible … win.
Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director
The Jaguars will win: If they win the turnover margin by two or more. The Jaguars are big underdogs and will need help to beat the Packers on the road. The Jaguars played pretty good defense a week ago but didn't force any turnovers. Rodgers must gift a couple for the Jaguars to pull the upset.
The Packers will win: If they slow Robinson. The young running back makes the Jaguars' offense go. If the Jaguars become one-dimensional, it might be a long afternoon for Luton.
As Martineau sees it: The Packers are good and right now the Jaguars are not. I've made some crazy picks over the years, but this isn't the spot. It's important the Jaguars young players continue to show some growth, but it likely will come in a losing effort.
John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer
The Jaguars will win if: They play far and away their best game of the season – and find a way to pressure Rodgers into multiple turnovers. Luton will need multiple touchdown passes and the Jaguars must force Rodgers into a flurry of mistakes, which almost never happens in Lambeau Field.
The Packers will win if: They stop the Jaguars' running game and play mistake-free everywhere else. The Packers realistically will do more than play "mistake-free." Rodgers is a Hall-of-Fame quarterback in his prime with total command of the Packers' offense, so the chances of him throwing for big yards and the Packers having a huge offensive day are very good.
As Oehser sees it: This would be one of the biggest upsets in Jaguars history if they win. Unless the Packers play completely out of character, that's unlikely.
Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent
The Jaguars will win if: They create huge holes for Robinson. The Minnesota Vikings went into Lambeau Field two weeks ago and ran for 173 yards behind Dalvin Cook, who carried the ball 30 times and scored three touchdowns and left with their second victory. The best defense against Rodgers is a dominant running game. The Packers are allowing 4.5 yards per rushing attempt. The Jaguars should test that number early and often.
The Packers will win if: Rodgers and Adams play pitch and catch. The Jaguars' secondary didn't have a strong outing against the Texans this past Sunday. The Packers are a significantly better passing offense than the Texans. Rodgers' numbers are, as usual, ridiculous; he has 24 touchdowns and only two interceptions this season and is completing 68 percent of his pass attempts. If the secondary isn't on its game, it's game over.
As Sexton sees it: The Packers will win. Rodgers against a defense that can't create consistent pressure isn't a game he's likely to lose.
J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com reporter/editor
The Jaguars will win if: They get a few turnovers and are near-perfect on offense. A few lengthy drives ending in touchdowns would be helpful to keep Rodgers and the Packers' offense on the sideline as long as possible. The Jaguars' margin for error is tiny to begin with, but against a team like the Packers it's razor thin. Cash in touchdowns at every opportunity.
The Packers will win if: They get pressure on Luton and force him into mistakes. If Rodgers has time, then this will likely not go well for the Jaguars. He has thrown two interceptions all season, both against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6.
As Shadrick sees it: The Packers are an elite team with a great quarterback in his prime playing at home, and they're well-rested after playing Thursday night in Week 9. The Jaguars are the youngest team in the NFL, with a rookie quarterback in his second career start – plus last week they worked some of their youngest defensive players who were not playing much into the lineup. The Jaguars must play a perfect game: no turnovers and near-flawless execution on offense and get some takeaways with zero busts/misses/mental mistakes on defense. That's a lot to ask. The kicking game is an issue, but field goals will not win many games the rest of the way anyway. It will not be this tough again … until next week when the Steelers come to town.
Ashlyn Sullivan, Digital reporter and host
The Jaguars will win if: A lot must happen for the Jaguars to shock the country and beat the Packers at Lambeau Field. The most important is winning the turnover battle. Rodgers rarely throws interceptions, so special teams is a big factor. If the Jaguars can get a few more offensive possessions … maybe they can take advantage of the opportunity.
The Packers will win if: Green Bay's offense simply outmatches the Jaguars defense. Rodgers is playing at an incredible level this year and Adams is one of the NFL's best wide receivers. Not to mention Jones is making noise. The Jaguars' defense will have to play better than what we have seen from any game this season to have a chance on slowing down the Packers' offense.
As Sullivan sees it: You cannot expect the Jaguars to go into Lambeau Field and beat the 6-2 Packers; that is the reality of a one-victory Jaguars team. But I am most curious to see if they can make a game out of this. I want to see how Luton handles his second week as starter and if he has the same poise as last week. If he does, you have something promising at quarterback … but this game all lies on the defense.