JACKSONVILLE – This is an opportunity game, with a bit of "should" in the mix.

It's also one with nothing guaranteed.

The AFC South-leading Jaguars (4-2) play host to the Indianapolis Colts (2-5) at EverBank Stadium Sunday. For the Jaguars, it's an opportunity for a three-game midseason lead in the AFC South in a game that – on paper – they "should" win.

The reason it's not guaranteed is the Colts – despite losing three consecutive games, and despite trading front-line players this week – haven't played in recent weeks like a team that has given up on its season. And until NFL teams give up on seasons, they remain very dangerous, whatever their record or circumstance.

This is also a division game, and division games are never guaranteed.

So, forget the outside noise. Forget that the Colts are without guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner, quality players traded by the Colts to the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers, respectively, this week. Forget, even, that the Jaguars have won 11 consecutive home games in this series.

This one still can be tricky, because this is the NFL – and no matter what's happening on paper and off the field, on the field nothing is guaranteed.

Here are 10 things the Jaguars must do to beat the Colts Sunday.

1. Run. This has been, is and will remain No. 1 for this Jaguars offense under Head Coach Liam Coen. The Jaguars have run well so far this season. What they have done there is encouraging and important to their identity. They have run physically and consistently, and they feel very close to a breakout run and breakout game. The thought here is the Jaguars will run better as the season continues. Sunday is a good time to move in that direction.
2. Stop the run. The Jaguars are as good as any team in the NFL at this. They weren't as good as usual in their last game, a 34-31 Week 6 loss to the Houston Texans. That's the Jaguars' defensive identity and they must return to their identity as quickly as possible.
3. Be physical. When the Jaguars have been the more physical team under Coen, they usually have been the better team and usually have won. Look for the Jaguars to try to establish this early Sunday. There's no better way to shed the bad feeling of a Week 6 loss to the Texans than to win in physical, dominant fashion Sunday.
4. Ignore the noise. Observers believe the Colts have quit and that the Jaguars should win this game easily. Recent performances, including a 16-10 loss to the unbeaten Minnesota Vikings last week, suggest otherwise. Focus and intensity will be key for the Jaguars Sunday.
5. Catch the ball. The Jaguars lost to the Texans for multiple reasons. Among the lesser-discussed reasons was a slew of dropped passes – not only by oft-criticized wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr., but also by normally reliable wide receiver Parker Washington. Whoever the receiver, catch the ball. Drops kill drives and momentum.
6. Let Lawrence be Lawrence. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing as well as any NFL quarterback, with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions through six games. There's no reason to force anything or do anything unusual. Lawrence playing at his "normal" level these days is a winning level.
7. Feed off the crowd. Opportunities are dwindling for the Jaguars to play in front of Jacksonville fans, with four regular-season home games remaining this season before they play all domestic home games in Orlando in 2026. The home crowds have been strong this season, with two one-sided victories over AFC contenders – 5-2 Cleveland and 4-3 New England. Lean into the 'Bank.
8. Stop explosives. The Jaguars' defense has been very good for the most part. The "fatal flaw" has been big plays allowed. "Explosives" almost always lead to points. The Jaguars must rush better and communicate better in the secondary moving forward.
9. Take the ball away. This defense thrives on takeaways. They have had just one in the last two games, with cornerback/wide receiver Travis Hunter intercepting Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud in the end zone in the fourth quarter in Week 6. This defense and team are very good. They won't be very good forcing turnovers at that rate.
10. Keep going both ways. Hunter had his best game against the Titans, catching four passes for 59 yards and intercepting Stroud. He has started to show in recent weeks the dynamic, play-making ability that made him the No. 2 overall selection in the 2025 NFL Draft. This has the feel of the start of something special.