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Final analysis: The experts on Jaguars-Jets

final-analysis

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2022 season, Jaguars "experts" – Tony Boselli, Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton and J.P. Shadrick – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They get the balance from their offense like they did against the Cowboys last week. Lawrence and running back Travis Etienne Jr. both had big games, as did wide receiver Zay Jones. They must mix coverages and pass-rush packaging against Wilson, who was thrust back into the starting role but who still throws for a very low percentage and can be shaky. They also must manage possibly-bad weather much better than they did in Philadelphia early in the year.
  • The Jets will win if: They slow the Jaguars' passing game, which has been a challenge lately for opposing defenses. And they must attack the Jaguars through the air, where the Jaguars have been vulnerable. New York is much better defensively than on offense, so the Jets must find a way to move the ball.
  • As Frangie sees it: This will be a low-scoring game, unlike the Dallas game. Weather could be awful, and the Jets' offense isn't very good while the New York defense is among the best in the league. Turnovers will be huge in this game, particularly if it's cold, wet and low-scoring. If the Jaguars win the turnover battle, they will win the game. That is the key.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end

  • The Jaguars will win if: They can maintain the focus that allowed them to prevail against the Cowboys. The "so-what-now-what" slogan that Pederson preached to his team earlier in the season is very fitting now with little margin for error to get to the playoffs. The Jaguars' offense needs to continue to be hot and the defense needs to stay opportunistic against a Jets team that has been floundering.
  • The Jets will win: If their defense can dominate to give their offense plenty of possessions to find some rhythm. New York has a running game that scares nobody and a quarterback room that has been hurt and inconsistent. Wilson's legs must be a factor for the Jets' offense to take flight.
  • As Lageman sees it: This game is exactly what you were hoping for prior to the season: A meaningful game in December. The Jags are looking to keep their playoff hopes alive by winning the AFC South and the Jets must win out to get to the dance. The stage is big. Short weeks are challenging, and experienced leadership will help the Jaguars be ready.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence passes for over 250 yards. I think the Jaguars must stay hot in the passing game and the Jets are a stingy pass defense. Yards and points could be tough, but Lawrence and the offense have done good things a lot of the year against other good defenses.
  • The Jets will win if: They run for more than 130 yards. The Jets ran for 273 yards against the Jaguars in 2021. This could be a line-of-scrimmage game and the Jets don't trust Wilson to win it on his own. The Jaguars must win early downs, and force Wilson into third-and-long for some mistakes to take place.
  • As Martineau sees it: This is fun right now in Jacksonville and it's a playoff kind of game for both teams. I think the Jaguars are feeling good about themselves, and they should. I also think playing three games in 12 days can catch up with you physically this time of year. This is going to be hard. I think the Jags find a way to stay hot and Lawrence makes some big plays on a big stage to beat the Jets, 24-19.

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John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They protect the ball and navigate the conditions offensively. The Jets are a tough defense, and the expected slick/cold conditions Thursday will make an already tricky task for the Jaguars' offense trickier. The Jaguars have scored 76 points in the last two games because of precision effectiveness and explosive in the passing game. They may not be as consistent Thursday, but they must find a way to get into the 20s.
  • The Jets will win if: They force two turnovers and get big plays in the passing game. The Jets may need defensive points Thursday. They also need Wilson, who has a big arm and knack for big plays, to hit a few explosive plays.
  • As Oehser sees it: This is a tough task for the Jaguars. The conditions and the Jets' defense figure to make it difficult for the Jaguars to pull away – and the Jaguars haven't been pulling away from opponents anyway. I see a tight game decided on which team makes a costly mistake late.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They get an early lead. The Kansas City Chiefs and Dallas Cowboys can hang a considerable number on the scoreboard, but the Jets' offense isn't in the same class. They've lost four of five games and have averaged 13 points in the losses. They have issues at quarterback and their running game has managed 126 yards in the last two games. If this opportunistic Jaguars defense can attack quarterback Zach Wilson, they can create turnovers and short fields and the Jaguars' offense can do its thing.
  • The Jets will win if: They create turnovers. New York's offense isn't very productive, but if the Jets get extra possessions and short fields, Wilson can take advantage. The Jets have one of the NFL's best defenses, but they have created just 15 turnovers in 14 games. If the Jaguars don't protect the ball, the Jets will make them pay – especially if the weather is a factor.
  • As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars win this game. I'd like to write the Jets a Thank You note for winning in Los Angeles at the end of the 2020 season. That one meaningless victory was the difference between Trevor Lawrence and Wilson. Lawrence will be the difference at MetLife Stadium on Thursday Night Football, and Jets fans will watch him and wonder what could have been while Jaguars fans are excited about what is to come.

J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com senior reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They hold onto the football and finish with valuable points at the end. The Jaguars' last true sloppy weather game was in Philadelphia, a game in which Lawrence lost four fumbles.
  • The Jets will win if: Wilson has time to stand in and hit receivers. There's talk there of his inaccuracy, but it can improve quickly if he has time and confidence. If the weather's an issue, both teams could be forced to keep it on the ground and grind it out.
  • As Shadrick sees it: This is the moment this Jaguars team has been building toward all season – a meaningful Thursday Night Football matchup with the Jaguars controlling their own destiny for the AFC South title. After a big win over Baltimore, the Jaguars were blown out in Detroit. The Jags had an emotional win over Dallas last week but no time to reflect on it. It was straight on to the Jets, who also have everything to play for. Everything Jaguars Head Coach Doug Pederson and the staff have preached all season about culture and what this team is should be on full display Thursday night.

❄️✈️ Wheels up to the big 🍎 for the Week 16 matchup against the New York Jets for Thursday Night Football. Swipe through to view the best holiday travel fits.

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