Slow Taylor and Pressure Rivers | Experts' Final Analysis Before Week 17 vs. Colts

Dec 27, 2025 at 09:00 AM

by John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick & Kainani Stevens

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2025 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Ind.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

The Jaguars will win if: Trevor Lawrence continues playing at a high level but also if they run the ball like they did earlier in the season. They also must stuff RB Jonathan Taylor, forcing the ageless QB Philip Rivers to have to win the game.
The Colts will win if: They get some help from the Jags. They probably will need to win the turnover battle, which is hard against the Jags. They also need to keep the game close and get it into the fourth quarter so Rivers' experience can make a difference.
As Frangie sees it: The Jags have the better team and are playing with a high level of confidence. The Colts are struggling, but will play hard as it's their final home game of the season. Divisional road games are never easy, but as long as the Jags don't beat themselves, they should be fine.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

The Jaguars will win if: They hold Taylor under 120 yards. The Jaguars have only allowed more than 70 yards rushing to a back once this season, and that was Taylor. Taylor can have a decent day and the Jaguars still win the game, but he can't have a monster day. It comes down to the run game because putting Rivers in long down and distance can be a good opportunity for this defense.
The Colts will win if: They win the turnover battle and hold the Jaguars under 25 points. The Jaguars' offense has been cooking and while the Colts can score, they probably won't light up the scoreboard against the Jaguars' defense. Indy will need some help in the turnover game.
As Martineau sees it: This is a more difficult game for the Jaguars than most outsiders will think. Indy will play with nothing to lose and back-to-back road games around the Christmas holiday can be tricky for teams. That being said, nothing seems to bother the Jaguars. They have plenty to play for in this one and continue to answer the bell. I think the Jaguars will beat the Colts, 30-20.

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John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

The Jaguars will win if: They continue playing offensively as they have for the last two months and pressure Rivers into a turnover or two. The Jaguars' offense has shown it can function against any defense in the NFL. While Rivers' comeback has been impressive, the Jaguars must make him uncomfortable in the pocket – which could lead to mistakes.
The Colts will win if: They run effectively and pressure Lawrence into turnovers. The Jaguars have been first-rate against the run all season, and Lawrence has played clean for a month. The Colts must be able to force those trends the other way Sunday.
As Oehser sees it: The Jaguars have won four consecutive games by 14 points or more. If the Jaguars can get an early lead, they can continue that streak. The longer the Colts believe they can win, the tougher it will be in the fourth quarter. The Jaguars should win, but the Colts remain in contention and haven't quit in recent weeks.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

The Jaguars will win if: They keep Colts running back Jonathan Taylor in check. Colts quarterback Philip Rivers has been the story in Indianapolis in recent weeks, but it's always about stopping Taylor. The Jaguars made the Colts one-dimensional in Week 13 in Jacksonville, holding Taylor to 74 yards rushing and 3.5 yards per carry in a 36-19 Jaguars victory. If his numbers look somewhat similar Sunday, then the Jaguars will leave Indianapolis with their 12th victory of the season.
The Colts will win if: They make Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence turn the ball over. He hasn't come close to a giveaway since the Sunday before Thanksgiving, and the result is a long Jaguars winning streak. If the Colts can give Rivers a few extra possessions, that could be the difference for Indianapolis.
As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars know what's at stake and they're not about to let go of the rope. The Colts are dangerous because they have guys like Taylor, wide receiver Alec Pierce and tight end Tyler Warren who can be game wreckers. But the Colts' defense isn't playing well and the offense is one-dimensional. The Jaguars will keep it going and take another step towards the AFC South title with a victory Sunday.

Jacksonville, Fla. — Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) during practice at the Miller Electric Center on December 25, 2025.

J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com senior reporter

The Jaguars will win if: They slow Taylor and pressure Rivers. This Jaguars defense did a good job last time out against Taylor, but Rivers can outthink a defense. I trust the Jaguars' front seven to be able to put it in Rivers' hands in longer down and distances. Just don't let Taylor flip the field on long plays.
The Colts will win if: They force a couple turnovers from Lawrence. The Jaguars' quarterback hasn't thrown an interception since Week 12 at Arizona, a stretch of four straight without a turnover. If the Jaguars get careless with the ball, then the Colts defense still has some players that can take advantage.
As Shadrick sees it: The Jaguars are flying high with confidence right now, and are playing some of the best all-around football in the NFL. By the time the game kicks off Sunday, the Colts could be officially eliminated - if the Texans beat the Chargers Saturday. Either way, this is a Colts team that is trending down and limping to the finish line. Finish them, and keep the momentum going - just handle business.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter

The Jaguars will win if: They play clean and don't underestimate their opponent. Divisional games can be tricky, so the Jags need to get an early lead and not let Indy hang around.
The Colts will win if: They slow Lawrence. The Jaguars' quarterback has played otherworldly but if Indy can get some pressure on him and force some turnovers, the Colts will have a chance.
As Stevens sees it: The Jags have full control of their own future and can't take this game lightly. I expect a lopsided victory as Jacksonville continues to roll going into the final week of the regular season.

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Jacksonville, Fla. — Jaguars running back DeeJay Dallas (20) during practice at the Miller Electric Center on December 25, 2025.