JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2026 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, Mark Duffner, Austen Lane, John Shipley and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

• The Jaguars will win if: They protect quarterback Trevor Lawrence, per usual, and allow him to get that outstanding passing game going. They also must continue leaning on an improved running game. The running game has gotten better each week and that balance has been nice to see. The Jags also must contain Taylor, who remains one of the NFL's better backs.
• The Colts will win if: They play their best game of the season. They are a struggling team and haven't won in Jacksonville in more than a decade. They must rely on Taylor, win on first down when they have the ball and shorten the game.  They likely can't win a shootout here, but their defense hasn't been awful. They need a low-scoring game.
• As Frangie sees it: The Jaguars are better and should win. But they do need balance against a tough Indy defense. I think they will find it.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

• The Jaguars will win if: They limit explosive plays, and the offense picks up where it left off in London. The Jaguars are the better team, so they must play like it.  There's a lot of confidence on offense, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence really plays well against the Colts. There's no reason to believe that won't continue. Lawrence and the Jaguars' offense appears very balanced right now, and that will be tough for Indianapolis to defend.
• The Colts will win if: They win the turnover battle by at least two, and Taylor has an epic day.  Colts quarterback Daniel Jones has struggled to hold onto the ball, which must change for Indianapolis to have a chance. Taylor has had some good games against the Jaguars and will need one of his best. The Jaguars' defense really held him in check last season, and it's another strength-on-strength matchup in the run game.
• As Martineau sees it: The Jaguars are in one of the best home stretches in franchise history, clobbering teams at EverBank Stadium going back to last November. It's hard to predict they will do that again to an Indianapolis team at a crossroads, but the Jaguars should control this for their fifth victory of the season - 31-17 the final.

John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

• The Jaguars will win if: They run and stop the run. The Jaguars' identity is as a physical team, and they likely will focus on reestablishing the run – and their stout run defense – in the first game out of the bye. If they control these two areas, the Colts will have difficulty countering.
• The Colts will win if: They force turnovers and get an early lead. The Colts had a difficult week, trading two elite players – guard Quenton Nelson and defensive tackle DeForest Buckner – and having players after that asking for trades. If the Colts can't get an early lead and the accompanying momentum, they likely will have a hard time getting control of the game.
• As Oehser sees it: This game likely will be about turnovers and mistakes. If the Jaguars can avoid them and control the line of scrimmage, it's hard to see where the Jaguars don't have matchup advantages. The thought here is the Jaguars will play to their identity and control this one in the second half.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

• The Jaguars will win if: They show up ready. Sunday is about the Jaguars, not the Colts. The Colts are a mess right now, and it would be easy for the Jaguars to just show up and expect to beat a struggling team. But the better team doesn't automatically win, which means the Jaguars must be ready to play their style, which is to be the more physical team, and centered on running and stopping the run. If the Jaguars do that, they will win – probably big.
• The Colts will win if: Jonathan Taylor gets loose. He's an awesome running back, but he faces the NFL's best run defense Sunday. He rushed for 74 yards with a touchdown in Jacksonville and 70 yards with a touchdown in Indianapolis last season – both Colts losses. The last time Taylor had a big day against the Jaguars was the 2024 regular-season finale, when he rushed for 177 yards in a Colts overtime victory. If the Jaguars can't stop him, the Colts can win.
• As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars will stop Taylor and beat the Colts for the sixth time in seven meetings. The Jaguars' run defense is coming off its worst showing of the season in a loss to the Houston Texans and will be highly motivated against one of the NFL's best runners. The Jaguars haven't allowed a 100-yard-plus running back since Taylor in January 2025, and they won't this week. The Jaguars will win and push their AFC South lead to three games on the first Sunday of November, which is when contenders separate from pretenders.

Mark Duffner, longtime NFL assistant coach and Jaguars analyst

• The Jaguars will win if: They focus on themselves coming out of the bye. They must focus on improving technique, fundamentals and execution: Red-zone penalties on offense, explosive passes on defense and kickoff coverage on special teams. The Jaguars must ignore the Colts' past record in Jacksonville and the Colts' "fire sale."
• The Colts will win if: They effectively run. Their run game led by Taylor has spiked the last two weeks. An effective running attack will help Jones, who is struggling with consistency.
• As Duffner sees it: The Jaguars must make the benefits of the bye count. They must seize the moment and control the narrative. The Colts' plan will be to control the ball and clock by running and playing great defense. The Jaguars must control the controllables and win with tough, smart, physical play.

Austen Lane, former NFL defensive end and Jaguars analyst

• The Jaguars will win if: They limit self-inflicted mistakes and win the turnover battle. Jacksonville has looked impressive at home all season. With the Colts in sell mode and the Jaguars in win-the-division mode, this is a game Jacksonville should control from start to finish. The biggest threat to the Jaguars in this matchup might be themselves.
• The Colts will win if: Taylor has a monster day on the ground and through the air. Taylor is the focal point of this Indianapolis offense, and the Colts' best chance to keep pace with an explosive Jaguars attack is to limit possessions, control the clock and keep Jacksonville's offense on the sideline. If Taylor can't dictate the tempo, it could be a long afternoon for Indianapolis.
• As Lane sees it: This is starting to look like a bit of a mismatch, especially after the Colts traded franchise cornerstones in Nelson and Buckner. Coming off their bye week, the Jaguars will be eager to get back into a rhythm and erase the bitter taste of their loss to Houston. I expect Jacksonville's pass rush to show up in a big way against the Colts offensive line. I was still playing in the NFL the last time Indy won in Duval. I will spare no mercy since that fun fact has made me feel extremely old.

John Shipley, Jaguars correspondent

• The Jaguars will win if: They force Jones into bad decisions. Jones has yet to regain the magic he had at the start of his Colts career last season, and has dealt with turnovers at times during their recent skid. The Jaguars have been one of the NFL's most advantageous defenses when it comes to takeaways, particularly in the red zone. More takeaways for the Jaguars means fewer possessions for the Colts, which also means less Taylor. This is how the Jaguars can force the Colts to turn to a pass-happy attack, which is not what they are built for right now.
• The Colts will win if: They create explosive plays in the passing game. The Jaguars have limited teams on the ground, but Head Coach Liam Coen on Monday called preventing explosive plays a post-bye area of focus defensively. The Jaguars' defense has done much well this season, but the big passing plays have been their biggest flaw. If the Colts are to upset the Jaguars, this is how they must do it.
• As Shipley sees it: The Colts seemingly lack the firepower to keep up with the Jaguars' offense, especially if Jacksonville builds an early lead to take Taylor out of the game. The Jaguars have beaten the Colts in Jacksonville for over a decade, and I think the trend continues this week. Jaguars win, 31-16.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter/producer

• The Jaguars will win if: They keep Taylor in check. The Colts are one-dimensional right now and run-stopping is one of the Jaguars' strengths. Keeping Taylor contained and forcing Jones to make plays should lead to a Jaguars victory.
• The Colts will win if: They catch the Jaguars by surprise. The Colts are in the middle of a fire sale and haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014. No one expects them to win Sunday, which should serve as the ultimate bulletin-board material for Colts Head Coach Shane Steichen and his team. A hot start for Indy or an exotic game plan could go a long way toward pulling the upset.
• As Stevens sees it: I'm not buying the trap game for this matchup. I think the Jaguars come out and handle business in their return to EverBank Stadium. Jags, 35-10.