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Jaguars Media Give Final Analysis Before Week 4 Against Bengals

FINAL ANALYSIS

JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2026 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, Mark Duffner, Austen Lane and John Shipley – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They continue to protect Trevor Lawrence. It's clear he is evolving into an elite NFL quarterback. The top five finish in last year's MVP voting was no fluke. The emergence of running back Bhayshul Tuten must continue. The Bengals have a special quarterback of their own in Burrow. The Jags must get home against him and at least move him off his spot.
  • The Bengals will win if: They protect Burrow and harass Lawrence – the same formula, really. These teams are built similarly, and the winner of this one can stick out its chest because it will go to 3-1 and be among the talk of the AFC.
  • As Frangie sees it: The Jags are better and should win. This team is elite. It is well-coached. The word is out. I expect the Jags to beat the Bengals.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: They win the turnover battle and have 33 minutes or more of time of possession. The ability to run and sustain drives will be key to keep the Bengals' offense in check. I believe the Bengals will pass the ball 40-plus times in this game, so the opportunity for turnovers will exist.
  • The Bengals will win if: They score 27 or more points, and defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is allowed to wreck the game on defense. I think the Jaguars will put up some points, so Cincinnati will have to outscore them. Lawrence needs to control the game in the trenches to offset the Jags' offensive attack.
  • As Martineau sees it: I don't love this one for the Jaguars. Cincinnati is coming off a loss, and the Bengals haven't lost to the Jags since 2019. I think it is going to be another entertaining game, but Burrow and the Bengals will break the Jags' heart in the final moments to win 31-30.

John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They run effectively and force two turnovers. The Jaguars have run well in the first three games, but running on an improved Bengals defensive front could be this area's toughest challenge to date. The Jaguars don't figure to shut out Burrow and a talented offense, which makes forcing mistakes at key times critical.
  • The Bengals will win if: They pressure Lawrence into an inconsistent game and Chase has a "Ja'Marr Chase" day. Lawrence has seven touchdown passes in two home games this season and none in a road loss at Denver. Chase is a future Hall of Famer who can score multiple times even when the opposing defense is prepared and playing well.
  • As Oehser sees it: The Jaguars are one of the NFL's best teams and have played like it in two home games. They will play a lot away from Jacksonville in the coming weeks and need to start winning on the road. The thought here is they will pull away late for their first victory over the Bengals after four consecutive losses.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They create two or more takeaways against Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow and Co. The Bengals turned it over on two fumbles last week in a loss at Pittsburgh, which the Steelers used to add six points. Burrow is one of the game's best quarterbacks, while wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase is one of the NFL's most dangerous receivers. Eliminating a possession or two would go a long way towards winning.
  • The Bengals will win if: They shut down the Jaguars' running game. Cincinnati invested draft picks and cash to improve their run defense, which was the NFL's worst last season. The Bengals are in the Top 10 in the NFL run defense through three games. They put the clamps on running backs Bucky Irving and David Montgomery in wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans but were beaten up front by the Steelers and running back Jaylen Warren, who gashed them for 127. The Jaguars' run game keeps them on schedule. If the Bengals can disrupt it, they will make life difficult on quarterback Trevor Lawrence.
  • As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars are as complete a team as there is in football through three weeks. That doesn't mean they win every week, but they're playing complementary football – and as they proved last Sunday against the New England Patriots, they can handle a big, physical defensive front. I think this offense can keep up and repay the Bengals for last year's last-second loss with a field-goal victory.

Check out top photos from the Jaguars' mid-week practice ahead of Week 4 of the 2026 Regular Season.

Mark Duffner, longtime NFL assistant coach and Jaguars analyst

  • The Jaguars will win if: They utilize a ball-control offensive attack and keep the potent Bengals offense on the sidelines. They must run effectively, emphasizing outside runs. They must move the chains and sustain drives, controlling the clock and shrinking the game. The best defense is a ball-control offense, and the defense must force turnovers. The Jaguars must make the Bengals earn every inch and make them go the long way.
  • The Bengals will win if: They affect Lawrence and win the line of scrimmage. Expect the Bengals' best defensive effort, execution and game plan of the season to date. This is a much-improved unit from last season, and they are determined to prove it. The Jaguars must protect the quarterback and have great ball security.
  • As Duffner sees it: The Bengals will bring their "A" game in all three phases. They are well-coached and felt they "beat themselves" last week against the Steelers with sloppy play in some areas with penalties and procedural errors. They will fix that. The Jaguars must handle a hostile environment in a game that will be a hard-fought 60 minutes.

Austen Lane, former NFL defensive end and Jaguars analyst

  • The Jaguars will win if: They run against a Bengals defense that just allowed 127 yards rushing to Warren of the Steelers while making Burrow uncomfortable by generating pressure with just four rushers.
  • The Bengals will win if: They exploit the Jaguars through the air and limit turnovers. Jacksonville has allowed 13 explosive passing plays through three games. Cincinnati has the offensive firepower to take advantage of that weakness and turn this game into a track meet.
  • As Lane sees it: This game feels like a coin toss. The Jaguars have struggled in Cincinnati in recent years and the Bengals are coming off a loss, so I expect them to bring their best at home. That said, I think this game comes down to two things: running and winning the turnover battle. Through three games, Jacksonville has held the advantage over Cincinnati in both areas.

John Shipley, Jaguars correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win if: They score touchdowns in the red zone. The Jaguars had several red-zone trips against the Bengals go awry when the teams played last season, with red-zone drives ending in an interception and a turnover on downs. The Jaguars were 5-of-5 scoring touchdowns in the red zone in Week 3 against the Patriots. They will need this kind of efficiency in Week 4 to keep up with an explosive Bengals offense that can score from any area of the field.
  • The Bengals will win if: They get the running game going. The Jaguars have so much on their hands already stopping Chase and wide receiver Tee Higgins that they likely will have to play with some light boxes against the run. If the Bengals can force the Jaguars to load the box by getting productive carries on the ground, the Jaguars' defense could be put on their heels and forced to pick their poison.
  • As Shipley sees it: I do not know how the Jaguars will stop Chase, who has had big games against Jacksonville. That said, I believe the Jaguars are the more physical team and will be able to run, leading to the offensive balance and efficiency they need to win. Jaguars 30, Bengals 20.

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