JACKSONVILLE – The top is clear, with much unknown after that.
Fernando Mendoza is expected to be selected No. 1 overall. That much is essentially certain when discussing the 2026 NFL Draft's quarterback class.
After that, very little is certain at all.
"It's Fernando Mendoza and then the rest of the class," NFL and Jaguars Media Analyst Bucky Brooks said.
Mendoza, the 2026 Heisman Trophy winner who led Indiana University to the College Football Playoff National Championship this past season, is widely projected to be selected by the Las Raiders No. 1 overall in next month's '26 draft.
While that's clear, just where Mendoza ranks among recent No. 1-drafted quarterbacks is less so. NFL Media Lead Draft Analyst Daniel Jeremiah said he graded Mendoza similarly to last year's No. 1 overall selection, Miami quarterback Cam Award, now with Tennessee Titans.
"The best attribute, I'd say, is his toughness," Jeremiah said of Mendoza. "There's kind of a mental and physical toughness to him that I think is going to serve him well."
Mendoza, who played three seasons at California before transferring to Indiana for his final season, threw 41 touchdowns with six interceptions this past season and ran for 276 yards and seven touchdowns.
"He's going to be the No. 1 overall pick," Brooks said. "People will debate how he stacks up with the previous No. 1s that come through the position, but when you look at him in this class, the reason he's head and shoulders above the rest of people is the way that he plays it, the way that he understands how to manage the game, the way that he delivers in the clutch … all those things are positives for him."
Brooks and Jeremiah each said the '26 quarterback class after Mendoza is less defined, with Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson – a one-year collegiate starter – considered a possible late first- or early-second round selection.
"The rest of the class are more developmental types," Brooks said.
Also considered potential Day 2 – Rounds 2 or 3 – quarterbacks: Carson Beck of Miami, Garrett Nussmeier of Louisiana State, Drew Allar of Penn State, Cole Payton of North Dakota State and Cade Klubnik of Clemson.
"There are some intriguing guys," Jeremiah said, "I don't think it's what we saw two years ago with that group and the upper-echelon guys, with six coming off the board. I don't see that. But after Mendoza, Simpson there are intriguing guys.
"It's just not a year where you see five or six [quarterbacks] in the first 40."
Quarterbacks projected in Rounds 4-7 in the '26 draft include Taylen Green of Arkansas, Luke Altmyer of Illinois and Sawyer Robertson of Baylor – with Brooks calling the class after Mendoza imperfect players who could contribute in the right circumstance.
"When when you talk about Carson Beck and Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Aller, you can find flaws in all of their games," Brooks said. "When you take them Day 2, Day 3, you're throwing a dart, hoping that they turn out to be a Dak Prescott [of the Dallas Cowboys], a Jalen Hurts [of the Philadelphia Eagles] or a Brock Purdy [of the San Francisco 49ers], but there are no guarantees based on their skill set that they're going to they're going to pop like that at the next level."
HANDICAPPING THE JAGUARS
The Jaguars have no need here at starter, with quarterback Trevor Lawrence in 2025 emerging as one of the NFL's top players at the position. Lawrence flourished in his first season in Head Coach Liam Coen's offense, passing for 4,007 yards and producing a franchise-record 38 touchdowns – 29 passing and nine rushing. Where the '26 draft could be intriguing for the Jaguars at quarterback is in the later rounds, with the team potentially using one of its 11 selections on a developmental player who could serve as a multi-year backup moving forward.
CHANCE JAGUARS TAKE A QUARTERBACK ON DAYS 1-2 (ROUNDS 1-3)
Very, very slim.
QBs ON THE JAGUARS ROSTER
Trevor Lawrence (17 starts), Nick Mullens, Carter Bradley.
BUCKY BROOKS' TOP 5 2026 QUARTERBACKS
- Fernando Mendoza, Jr., Indiana
- Ty Simpson, Jr., Alabama
- Carson Beck, Sr., Miami
- Garrett Nussmeier, Sr., Louisiana State
- Drew Allar, Sr., Penn State.
POSSIBLE FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS
Mendoza, Simpson.
QUOTABLE
- Brooks on selecting quarterbacks in the NFL Draft: "A lot of times you'll start looking for the quarterback when you desperately need one and that makes you make bad decisions. So you overvalue, inflate who they are. The best thing [to ask] is, 'Are they legitimately Guys?' Because when you look around the league, first-round quarterbacks are the ones that play. As much as we love a feel-good story, the overwhelming majority of your quarterbacks are first-round quarterbacks, and the ones that are successful are the ones that legitimately had first-round talent."
