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Final analysis: The experts on Giants-Jaguars


JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2022 season, Jaguars "experts" – Tony Boselli, Bucky Brooks, Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Ashlyn Sullivan – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The New York Giants at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville.

Tony Boselli, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars left tackle

  • The Jaguars will win if:They can stop Barkley and make Jones beat them. Jones has accuracy issues. If the Jaguars win on early downs and force Jones to beat them, there will be opportunities for turnovers. 
  • The Giants will win if:They take away the run and short passing game. Lawrence has been best this year when he hasn't been forced to throw downfield. The Giants have been taking advantage of mistakes and getting big turnovers on defense. 
  • As Boselli sees it:This is a big game for the Jaguars. They had opportunities to win in the fourth quarter the last three weeks but haven't been able to make a play. I think it changes this week. Big late fourth-quarter drive gives the Jaguars a 24-21 victory.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

  • The Jaguars will win if: They combine the offense they played last week with the defense they played the week before. So the parts are there; the Jags have been in every game. They just have to put it together. Lawrence must maintain the rhythm he found last week, going 20-for-22. And they must find a pass rush; Jones tends to hold the ball a bit so the Jaguars must get to him. Finally, they must finish. That has been a problem.
  • The Giants will win if: They establish Barkley, one of the better backs in the league. They have found a winning formula of Jones and Barkley and a tough-nosed defense and Daboll has them believing. If they start well again, they could be tough to beat.
  • As Frangie sees it: This is the kind of game a struggling home team tends to win. Road team comes in not, expecting to win. Home team that is much better than their record plays hard. I like the Jags' chances here.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end

  • The Jaguars will win if: They can achieve balance with their offense. A strong running game would open some big-play opportunities against an aggressive Giants defense. Running back Travis Etienne Jr. has given this Jaguars rushing attack a boost that will continue to take pressure off quarterback Trevor Lawrence and could open up some explosive play opportunities with play action.
  • The Giants will win if: They run the ball effectively and limit mistakes. The New York offense runs through Barkley, who is having a tremendous year leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage. Jones is managing this Giants offense and utilizing his legs to help the rushing attack as well. Giants Head Coach Brian Daboll has kept his team from beating themselves.
  • As Lageman sees it: This will be a really good football game and one the Jaguars can win. The Jags have a really good run defense to counter the talents of Barkley and the Giants receiving corps strikes no fear. Coordinator Wink Martindale's Giants defense is very aggressive, but the Jaguars offensive line has shown improvement that will allow time for Lawrence to find his guys. The Jaguars defense needs to force some Giants mistakes to put this one away.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

  • The Jaguars will win if: They can run the ball effectively and hold onto the football. The Giants' defense is the worst in the NFL in yards per carry at 5.6. They have been opportunistic by recovering a league-high seven fumbles. The Jags just ran for 243 yards last week. This should be a good matchup for sustained drives and keeping the ball away from Barkley.
  • The Giants will win if: They turn the Jags over. The 5-1 start is impressive by the Giants, but they have delivered wins by creating big-time turnovers. I think it will take a two- or three-turnover day for the Giants to get the win on the road in a place they've never won.
  • As Martineau sees it: The NFL is weird. If you like numbers, it doesn't make sense that the Jags have two wins and the Giants have five. I think the metrics will show the way in this game, and the Jaguars should be desperate to stay in the AFC South race and snap an 18-game losing streak against the NFC. The Jaguars will win their first close game of the 2022 season: 24-16.

John Oehser, senior writer

  • The Jaguars will win if: They convert in the red zone and the defense gets back to taking the ball away. The Jaguars' offense has moved consistently in every game this season; when they convert in the red zone, they score enough to win. The defense hasn't forced a turnover in two games after forcing nine in the first four weeks. This team needs the opportunities takeaways to create.
  • The Giants will win if: Barkley controls the game and they make a big play late. That has been their formula for winning this season. If the Jaguars can make Barkley look like he's not the best player on the field and can keep this from being a one-score game at the end, their chances increase dramatically.
  • As Oehser sees it: This Jaguars team will break through eventually this season. They're too close and playing too well for that not to happen. But the Giants are winning close games and the Jaguars are falling short. Until the Jaguars make a play late to win, it's hard to predict them to do so.

Brian Sexton, senior correspondent

  • The Jaguars will win: If they get after Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and force turnovers. Jones is playing smart, efficient football, completing 67 percent of his passes. While he's not lighting the NFL on fire with just five touchdown passes, he's not burning down the Giants' season with bad decisions and has only thrown two interceptions. The Jaguars didn't have a takeaway in the last two games, and they also haven't gotten much in the way of pressure. They must get back after it against the Giants.
  • The Giants will win if: They can run the football. Jones is playing well because running back Saquon Barkley is healthy and looks like the guy the Giants took No. 2 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. If Barkley can stay near his 5.2-yard-per-carry average, then Jones' job is much easier. The Giants have beaten the Green Bay Packers and Baltimore Ravens the last two weeks with the offense running through Barkley. It's not hard to figure out how they are going to play in Jacksonville.
  • As Sexton sees it: The Jaguars match up well with the Giants. I think this is the week the Jaguars play a complete game after watching the offense disappear against the Texans and the defense disappear against the Colts. There are many indicators of progress but the most important one – the wins – haven't materialized. I see a close win after a couple of close losses.

J.P. Shadrick, senior reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They continue to protect the football like last week and hit a few explosive plays on offense. The defense must slow down Barkley, and force Jones into predictable passing situations – then the Jaguars' pass rush must get home. If they do that consistently, that gets the Giants out of their comfort zone of handing it off.
  • The Giants will win if: They disrupt and confuse Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence with strange looks in passing situations and get a couple of takeaways. If the Giants control the clock and cash-in possessions with touchdowns, they could muddy the game up and get it to the fourth quarter – their favorite time of the game.
  • As Shadrick sees it: If the Jaguars build a lead in the fourth quarter, they better not let off the accelerator because this Giants team closes like a freight train. Protect the ball. Finish in the end zone. Send population to Barkley. Put Jones on the ground when you have the chance. Someone make a play and – FINISH THE GAME.

Ashlyn Sullivan, Jaguars team reporter

  • The Jaguars will win if: They limit Barkley. The Jaguars have a top-three run defense in the league and are allowing opponents 89 rushing yards per game. Pederson said it best in his press conference: Barkley can bust a 50-plus-yard run when you least expect it and when you think you have stopped the run the whole game. The Jaguars' defense must think about stopping Barkley every play.
  • The Giants will win if: They watch the film and exploit the passing defense. Those short, dink-and-dunk passes and crossing routes have haunted the Jaguars the past two weeks. It is no secret the Giants will try to do the same thing Sunday. Tre Herndon will play over Shaquill Griffin at cornerback. Maybe that will give a lift to the passing defense. The Giants don't have a true No. 1 receiver, but it will certainly be a receiver-by-committee attempt to get past the Jaguars' secondary this week.
  • As Sullivan sees it: If the Jaguars can stop the run this game as they have all season, they will win. The Jaguars match up well against the Giants. They do not have a tight end or receiver I worry about like I did last week against the Colts. If the Jaguars do not shoot themselves in the foot they can win this game, but the dumb penalties we have seen the past two weeks cannot happen when you are playing a five-win team.

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