JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2025 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Tex.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

• The Jaguars will win if: They continue to emphasize the run with Travis Etienne Jr. and find a few passing plays down the field – and, frankly, if they can find some receivers. Who knows which receivers will be healthy enough to play. None of the normal starting receivers or tight end finished the game in Las Vegas. Would assume the offense again goes through wide receiver Parker Washington and interested to see how much newly-acquired wide receiver Jakobi Meyers can help immediately. The Jags will run it, they just have to find some passing offense against a very good Texans defense.
• The Texans will win if: They get good quarterback play. The Texans will want to stop the Jaguars' running attack and turn those outstanding pass rushers loose on Lawrence.
• As Frangie sees it: This will be another one of those games that comes down to the final half of the final quarter. What else is new? It is a crucial AFC South game because if the Jags win, it is suddenly a long way back for the defending division champion Texans, who are chasing both Indianapolis and Jacksonville. The team that makes one more play, as the Jags did in overtime last week, will win this game.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end

• The Jaguars will win if: They stop the run game and put the game all on Davis Mills, who last started at the end of the 2022 season and who doesn't have nearly the arm talent of Stroud. Getting pressure on a quarterback that hasn't played much is imperative for the Jaguars.
• The Texans will win if: Their defense dominates the game. Houston's defense is the real deal and rated at the top of most defensive categories. Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are the headliners, and they can dominate games and wreck opposing quarterbacks' worlds.
• As Lageman sees it: This game will be extremely physical just like the last meeting and will not be a game for the meek. The Jags will need some efficiency in their passing game early to keep the Texans off balance to get their running game going to establish their identity. The Texans are backed into a corner and will be ready to fight to keep their playoff hopes up, so expect a bruising football game that will have plenty of intensity and emotion.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

• The Jaguars will win if: Running back Travis Etienne Jr. gets more than 20 touches and they win the turnover battle. The Jaguars ran for 75 yards in the second half in a Week 3 home victory over Houston. They must find that again. Etienne had five catches last week and can continue to help in the passing game with the Jaguars banged up. The Jags could force Mills into some mistakes, too.
• The Texans will win if: They score 20 points. This feels like a race to 20 points and the Jaguars' defense has allowed 64 in the last two games combined. Houston has allowed the fewest points in the NFL with its top-ranked defense. If the Texans get to 20, they will win.
• As Martineau sees it: This is going to be hard, and we all know it. The Jaguars found something by scoring on six straight possessions to finish the Raiders game. Defensive end Travon Walker getting healthier and linebacker Devin Lloyd back in the lineup can make a difference on defense for the Jaguars. Let's see if the Jaguars can sweep Houston for the first time since 2017. I think they will courtesy of a 23-13 victory.

John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

• The Jaguars will win if: They run well, particularly late in the game, and pressure Mills into mistakes. The Jaguars also need to hit a big play or two and take the ball away from a struggling Texans offense at least once to gain the advantage in what could be a sluggish game offensively.
• The Texans will win if: They force the Jaguars into mistakes. The Texans need their dynamic pass rushers, Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, to Trevor Lawrence into a few uh-oh moments. They also must give Mills time to allow the backup to relax in the pocket and make plays.
• As Oehser sees it: This is a critical game, one the Jaguars should win. If they can pressure Mills and slow the Texans' offense enough to have a lead in the second half, the guess here is the Jaguars can run effectively enough late in the game to win a grinder and sweep their division rivals.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

• The Jaguars will win if: They create two or more takeaways. That was the formula for their 4-1 start and their lone takeaway against the Las Vegas Raiders last week jumpstarted their come-from-behind win. Backup Davis Mills is a competent quarterback for the Texans, but he isn't starter C.J. Stroud – and if the Jaguars can create pressure and confusion, he'll throw them the football. Extra possessions will be important for the Jaguars against the best defense in football, which is allowing only 15.1 points per game.
• The Texans will win if: They shut down the Jaguars' running game. Like takeaways, the Jaguars' running game has been part of their formula for success and they're coming off a late-game rushing performance they want to replicate. Houston is allowing less than 90 yards per game rushing this season and the Texans' front four is capable of completely controlling the action. If Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence has to throw 40 times Sunday, the Texans will stay in the playoff race.
• As Sexton sees it: I wouldn't pick the Jaguars to win this game if Stroud was playing. The lack of pass rush and injuries on the back end of the defense would be glaring weaknesses against him but maybe not against Mills. I think Head Coach Liam Coen will have his team focused on getting one in Houston that puts the Jaguar in a strong, contending position as we get to that part of the season when contenders and pretenders separate.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter

• The Jaguars will win if: They run. Every Jaguars victory has come when the team has had success on the ground. Etienne will be a crucial part of the offensive success this week against one of the best defenses in the NFL.
• The Texans will win if: Mills can get the ball out quickly. The Jags' secondary is banged up and the Texans have weapons like wide receiver Nico Collins that can be dangerous if Mills gets them the ball.
• As Stevens sees it: This is a huge opportunity for the Jaguars to make a statement within the division by sweeping the Texans. Houston is banged up and the Jaguars must take advantage. Playing clean football and sticking to the game plan will give the Jags a good chance to leave Texas as winners.