JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2025 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.

Up this week:

The Indianapolis Colts at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville.

Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars

• The Jaguars will win if: They play to their identity. That means run the football, stop the run, be the more physical team. It has had everything to do with their 8-4 start. But the Jaguars face a very physical team with one of the best backs in the league in Taylor. They also have to lean into their improved pass rush and make sure Jones is forced to move around a bit. The Jags must hit the plays that are there. Trevor must throw accurately; they must catch the ball.
• The Colts will win if: THEY are the more physical team. They want to run it with Taylor. They also have to manage the psychology of not having won in Jacksonville since 2014. That's a long time and streaks like that exist for a reason. If it starts badly for Indianapolis, that kind of thing could get in the Colts' heads.
• As Frangie sees it: This is one of the most important and exciting games of the season. December football with first place on the line is as good as it gets. The Jags will be ready. They have proven that. The Colts are very good. The division suddenly is one of the best in football. Should be a great crowd and the Jags have had the Colts' number in this stadium. This one will come down the closing minutes. But the Jags should find a way.

Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end

• The Jaguars will win if: They play their brand of football, which is being the more physical team. Running backs Travis Etienne Jr. and Bhayshul Tuten need to be a powerful one-two punch to keep a much-improved Colts offense on the sideline. Special teams has been a real plus for the Jags this year and must continue to be.
• The Colts will win if: Taylor rolls downhill for 60 minutes. Taylor is the best back in the NFL and will be a difficult challenge for the Jaguars' No. 1-ranked rush defense. If he is rolling, Jones will have a much more comfortable pocket to find his targets and not have to worry about fibula issues.
• As Lageman sees it: This is the type of moment you work for in the business of football, a meaningful game with the division lead on the line at home in front of your fans in December. This should be a tremendous environment with weather a big factor. The ground game will be a huge factor, but the play of the quarterbacks is always a huge factor and Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence coming off of his best game of the season will help the Jaguars have balance. Wet footballs will be on the field with the weather and whoever holds onto them should find victory.

Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director

• The Jaguars will win if: They keep Taylor to 115 yards or less and win time of possession. This game comes down to who controls the trenches. The team that runs will also be able to utilize the play-action game. The Jaguars have been good in the trenches when they win and need a good effort against Indy.
• The Colts will win: They don't lose the turnover battle and gain the edge on special teams. The Jaguars have good weapons on special teams and games like this can be decided in that area. The Colts just acquired kicker Blake Grupe from the New Orleans Saints after waiving Michael Badgley. Grupe is 5-for-11 from over 40 yards this season.
• As Martineau sees it: Let's go! A fun one in early December. The Jaguars are confident and appear to be locked in the last few weeks. The NFL's No. 1 defense against the run gets to show its worth in this one. I think the Jags will slow Taylor, force a couple of Jones mistakes and the offense will continue to click at a good rate. Jaguars win, 34-23.

John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer

• The Jaguars will win if: They run effectively and are the more physical team. When they play to that formula, they usually win. The thought here is the Jaguars also must hit at least one big play in the passing game. That has been missing much of the season. They must find it Sunday.
• The Colts will win if: Taylor runs effectively. Sometimes the obvious matchup is the critical matchup – and in this case, the obvious matchup of the Jaguars' No. 1-ranked run defense versus the NFL's best running back indeed is the main storyline.
• As Oehser sees it: The Jaguars are the hot team entering the game and they're gaining confidence. The Colts have lost their last two games. If the Jaguars minimize errors and out-physical the Colts, they will take over possession of first place in the AFC South.

Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent

• The Jaguars will win if: They run better than the Colts. That's the whole story this week. Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is the NFL's leading rusher with 15 touchdowns rushing. The Jaguars must wrap up and put him on the ground. When he runs for 100 yards or more this season, the Colts are undefeated. Pretty simple equation this week.
• The Colts will win if: They protect Daniel Jones, the latest former first-round quarterback to resurrect his career in a new city – and a Most Valuable Player candidate earlier this season. He's playing with a fracture in his lower leg, and he isn't the same mobile threat who ran for 107 yards and a touchdown against the Jags in 2022 with the New York Giants. If they keep him comfortable, the Colts will win.
• As Sexton sees it: I believe the Jaguars are up for the Taylor challenge at home. I also believe they will run the ball much more effectively this week than they did last week in a victory over the Tennessee Titans. The Jaguars have had a few bad days on the ground this season, but in every case have followed up with a big performance. I think the Jaguars are in sole possession of first place in the AFC South on Sunday evening.

J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com senior reporter

• The Jaguars will win if: They play a physical style on both lines of scrimmage. This is the way the Jaguars play their best on both sides of the ball. If they impose their will, they should be able to handle business.
• The Colts will win if: Taylor gets in a groove and runs for big yardage. This sets up a favorable down-and-distance passing game for Jones. If the Jags can force longer down-and-distance situations, they should be able to pressure Jones and test his fractured fibula.
• As Shadrick sees it: What team handles the emotions of this big game in December and the physical style of play will go a long way to determine who has the upper hand. The Jags have a long home win streak against the Colts because the Colts struggle to run and turn the ball over against the Jags in Jacksonville. This should be an exceptional game that comes down to the fourth quarter.

Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter

• The Jaguars will win if: They get consistent pressure on Jones. The Colts' quarterback is playing through a significant leg injury and has lost most of his mobility. The Jags' defense needs to take advantage of that while still committing to stop the run.
• The Colts will win if: They control the time of possession. Taylor is a workhorse with home-run capability. If the Colts control the pace of play on a rainy day, they will likely be able to slowly wear -down a banged-up Jacksonville defense.
• As Stevens sees it: Both teams have found success this season and found ways to win tough games. I think it may come down to turnovers – as it so often does in the NFL. Whichever team can play clean and smart will have the edge Sunday.