JACKSONVILLE – Each week during the 2025 season, Jaguars "experts" – Frank Frangie, Jeff Lageman, Brent Martineau, John Oehser, Brian Sexton, J.P. Shadrick and Kainani Stevens – will analyze the following day's Jaguars matchup.
Up this week:
Frank Frangie, Radio Voice of the Jaguars
- The Jaguars will win if: They continue to play complementary football -- the defense getting takeaways, the offense cashing in. Also, to continue to be the more physical team, which means running and stopping the run. Clearly, that is this team's identity. Be physical, be opportunistic. They also need to mount a pass rush against Mahomes, the best player in the league for a number of years. The Jaguars cannot let him sit comfortably in the pocket. Offensively, they must find a rhythm. That hasn't yet happened. It's the only missing piece.
- The Chiefs will win if: They slow the Jaguars' running game and make Trevor Lawrence throw off schedule. The Chiefs also need long, slow drives to take what should be an enthusiastic EverBank Stadium crowd out of it. And they need a big game from defensive tackle Chris Jones and others up front defensively. The Jags' offensive line has been winning most battles.
- As Frangie sees it: The Jags are 3-1 for a reason. They are tough, opportunistic and efficient – even if not yet electric. The Chiefs are the standard in the league, even with a bit of a slow start this year. This time, unlike others, the Jags measure up. Play a clean game and the Jags have a great chance to win.
Jeff Lageman, Jaguars analyst and former Jaguars defensive end
- The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr. find the chemistry that will allow them to play at a high level. The Chiefs love to play aggressively with defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo dialing up plays. This creates opportunities down the field that must be captured and Thomas needs to find that swagger that made him so dangerous last year.
- The Chiefs will win if: They continue to protect the football and Mahomes does amazing Mahomes things. The Chiefs have only one turnover on the season with an interception Mahomes threw in Week 2 versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Wide receiver Xavier Worthy has been a jolt of energy for the Kansas City offense with his return to the lineup last week.
- As Lageman sees it: Monday Night Football is a special opportunity for players, coaches and fans. It's an opportunity to showcase your talents, team – and even the city that you play in – and do it with pride and passion. I expect "The Bank" to have a raucous atmosphere and the Jaguars to be what they have been in the first four weeks, which is a physical, tough and dedicated bunch. I expect the Chiefs to be what they have been for a number of years, which is one of the NFL's best teams. If the Jaguars can manage the moment, it's going to be a special night.
Brent Martineau, Action Sports Jax Sports Director
- The Jaguars will win if: Lawrence throws 250 plus yards and two touchdowns. The Chiefs are going to make Lawrence beat them and try to slow down the Jaguars' run game. It's time for the Jaguars passing attack to deliver. I think they will make things a bit easier to operate and that will lead the passing game to some success.
- The Chiefs will win if: They win the turnover battle. It should be a fun atmosphere, and the Chiefs know how to win in a variety of ways, but I think they will need some turnover help to do it. The Jaguars have owned that area of the game in the first month of the season. Kansas City will need to play clean and force the Jags into a couple of mistakes.
- As Martineau sees it: Let's go on Monday Night Football! The Jaguars are poised to show the football world they are legit. This game has a real chance to put the Jaguars on the map and Lawrence, wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. and wide receiver/defensive back Travis Hunter. I think the Jaguars win a fun one, 27-23.
John Oehser, jaguars.com senior writer
- The Jaguars will win if: They control the game physically, run efficiently and hit a big pass play or two. The Jaguars have established themselves through four games as a physical team. They must hit Mahomes consistently and turn in an explosive pass play or two to get far enough ahead in the fourth quarter to hold off the three-time defending AFC Champions.
- The Chiefs will win if: Mahomes creates above-the-Xs-and-Os plays, particularly late. Mahomes is one of the NFL's few quarterbacks truly capable of keeping his team in any game. The Jaguars are turning into a team that believes it can win close games. The Chiefs know they can win close games, and it's Mahomes who gives them that confidence.
- As Oehser sees it: The Jaguars are good. They know how they want to play and they have learned to play to their identity as a physical team that can control game's tempo and circumstance. The Chiefs are as tough a team to knock out as there is in the NFL. The thought here is the Jaguars can do it. We'll see if they're really ready.
Brian Sexton, jaguars.com senior correspondent
- The Jaguars will win if: They play better on third down offensively and defensively. They have converted just nine of 29 third downs for an underwhelming 31 percent offensively and are giving the opponent a first down nearly 47 percent of the time defensively. Those numbers must be reversed. Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence must be on the field and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes must be on the sidelines for the Jaguars to win.
- The Chiefs will win if: Mahomes feels comfortable in the pocket. He rarely gets sacked and doesn't take a lot of hits. The pass rush must force him to move sooner than he wants and hit him as often as possible – even if it's not a sack. Making him uncomfortable will give the Jaguars a chance to make him make a mistake, which he also doesn't do very often.
- As Sexton sees it: I think the Jaguars are doing the things they need to do on defense to win. Can the offense come through with the running game and better success on third down to limit Mahomes? This isn't the best Kansas City team we've seen but it's still very good. The Jaguars must be ready to play 60 minutes and not 59:47. I think they get it done.
J.P. Shadrick, jaguars.com senior reporter
- The Jaguars will win if: They play stingy defense and run the football, with a big play or two in the passing game added in. There will be opportunities with the way the Chiefs bring pressures – and if blocked well, they then must execute those throws down the field.
- The Chiefs will win if: Mahomes has time to make things happen down the field. He loves to extend plays and put pressure on the secondary to cover for longer. If the Jaguars cannot get consistent pressure on him – and hit him – this is usually a bad formula for the defense.
- As Shadrick sees it: So far this has been the season of checking things off the organizational list: Season-opening win? Check. Tough divisional win against a team that dominated the series history? Check. West Coast trip and win against an NFC power? Check. Why not a prime-time win over the current NFL dynasty? These Jaguars seem to understand what's in front of them, but they also have confidence that if they just execute a little bit better in all three phases, they can hang with any team on the schedule. A win this week would put the entire NFL on notice.
Kainani Stevens, Jaguars team reporter
- The Jaguars will win if: The run game continues to dominate and keep the offense moving. A successful run game should keep some of Spagnuolo's blitzes at bay and give the Jags their best chance at offensive success. Lawrence also needs to be smart with the football and avoid turnovers.
- The Chiefs will win if: If Mahomes makes magic once again. Pass-rush discipline will be huge. The Jags can't allow Mahomes to get outside the pocket and make any of those miraculous plays he tends to make.
- As Stevens sees it: A huge opportunity under the bright lights of Monday Night Football. I expect a one-score game and I'm wearing my teal-colored glasses until given a reason not to. Jags will get their first win over the Chiefs since 2009.
